Dog Days in May: ISDEX Drops On Market Meanderings
January 6th, 2009 |Since May 19, ISDEX, The Internet Stock Index, lost 9% bringing the year to date to a respectable (and we think appropriate) 38% gain, far from the near 80% gain it peaked at April 21. Is the party over? The invitations RSVPed to the bubble that burst? We doubt it and expect that by year-end 1998 we could find reasons to justify a year-to-date gain of 70%-80% for the entire year.
The two elements that could ignite: commerce and retail, two sides of the commercial coin that we expect may fuel Internet stocks in October or November as the holiday hoopla brings out the true magnitude of Web-based commerce in the work place and home.
In the meantime, investors are forced to really do their homework here and look for firms with more than a "future" story, ones with balance sheets and businesses generating earnings today or ones ignored by the market madness that swept through the sector in April. Our latest tally:
ISDEX May 19-26
| Mecklermedia's | 26-May-98 |
% change |
point change |
|
ISDEX . |
close |
from |
from |
|
| The Internet Stock Index | 19-May-98 |
19-May-98 |
||
ISDEX Geometric Avg. |
138.05 |
-7.9% |
-11.88 |
|
ISDEX Price Wtd. |
1,411.27 |
-8.9% |
-138.42 |
|
NASDAQ |
1,778.09 |
-3.7% |
-67.78 |
|
DJIA |
8,963.73 |
-1.0% |
-90.92 |
|
Open Text |
OTEXF |
$17.63 |
7% |
$1.13 |
Versant Object Technologies |
VSNT |
$6.00 |
7% |
$0.38 |
Broadvision |
BVSN |
$16.56 |
5% |
$0.72 |
Mecklermedia |
MECK |
$21.31 |
2% |
$0.44 |
Intuit |
INTU |
$50.00 |
1% |
$0.63 |
Concentric |
CNCX |
$22.75 |
1% |
$0.25 |
Cylink |
CYLK |
$11.13 |
1% |
$0.06 |
PSINet |
PSIX |
$11.06 |
-1% |
-$0.13 |
Axent |
AXNT |
$25.44 |
-2% |
-$0.41 |
CKS Group |
CKSG |
$18.88 |
-3% |
-$0.63 |
CyberCash |
CYCH |
$17.00 |
-3% |
-$0.59 |
Secure Computing |
SCUR |
$10.63 |
-3% |
-$0.38 |
Security First Net Bank |
SFNB |
$10.00 |
-4% |
-$0.38 |
Metricom |
MCOM |
$9.88 |
-4% |
-$0.38 |
Verisign |
VRSN |
$34.50 |
-4% |
-$1.38 |
CheckFree |
CKFR |
$21.75 |
-4% |
-$0.88 |
Spyglass |
SPYG |
$10.38 |
-4% |
-$0.44 |
America Online |
AOL |
$82.75 |
-6% |
-$4.94 |
WavePhore |
WAVO |
$12.94 |
-6% |
-$0.81 |
Earthlink Network |
ELNK |
$50.00 |
-6% |
-$3.25 |
Egghead.com |
EGGS |
$8.63 |
-6% |
-$0.56 |
E*TRADE |
EGRP |
$21.50 |
-7% |
-$1.50 |
RealNetworks |
RNWK |
$23.63 |
-7% |
-$1.81 |
Open Market |
OMKT |
$14.13 |
-7% |
-$1.09 |
VocalTec |
VOCLF |
$16.13 |
-7% |
-$1.25 |
N2K |
NTKI |
$17.00 |
-8% |
-$1.44 |
Doubleclick |
DCLK |
$33.63 |
-8% |
-$2.88 |
CNET |
CNWK |
$36.50 |
-8% |
-$3.19 |
Yahoo! |
YHOO |
$108.25 |
-8% |
-$9.91 |
Amazon.Com |
AMZN |
$81.88 |
-9% |
-$8.50 |
Network Solutions |
NSOL |
$37.50 |
-10% |
-$3.97 |
PairGain |
PAIR |
$15.63 |
-10% |
-$1.69 |
CDnow |
CDNW |
$19.38 |
-10% |
-$2.09 |
Network Associates |
NETA |
$60.06 |
-10% |
-$6.56 |
IDT Corp |
IDTC |
$29.00 |
-11% |
-$3.75 |
Sportsline USA |
SPLN |
$27.13 |
-12% |
-$3.63 |
Security Dynamics |
SDTI |
$21.94 |
-12% |
-$3.06 |
CheckPoint Software |
CHKPF |
$26.75 |
-12% |
-$3.75 |
Onsale |
ONSL |
$26.25 |
-13% |
-$3.88 |
Mindspring |
MSPG |
$53.75 |
-13% |
-$8.06 |
Excite |
XCIT |
$52.88 |
-13% |
-$8.13 |
@Home Network |
ATHM |
$33.63 |
-14% |
-$5.44 |
Netscape |
NSCP |
$23.88 |
-14% |
-$4.00 |
Cyberguard |
CYBG |
$11.75 |
-15% |
-$2.00 |
CMG Info |
CMGI |
$43.25 |
-15% |
-$7.75 |
USWeb |
USWB |
$17.19 |
-18% |
-$3.75 |
NewsEdge |
NEWZ |
$10.75 |
-20% |
-$2.63 |
Broadband Technologies |
BBTK |
$6.02 |
-20% |
-$1.48 |
Lycos |
LCOS |
$50.38 |
-20% |
-$12.84 |
Infoseek |
SEEK |
$22.38 |
-26% |
-$7.75 |
TOTAL |
1,411.27 |
-9% |
-139.30 |
|
SIMPLE AVERAGE |
28.23 |
-9% |
-2.79 |
What happened? The search and navigation arena got ahead of itself in the eyes of investors. Too much "Christmas to come" was discounted into today's news and "what ifs." That's why Lycos (NASDAQ:LCOS), Infoseek (NASDAQ:SEEK), Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) ended up the week headed south.
For now we caution on betting on brand appeal. Don't expect Christmas in May--it's almost summer, usually a slow time for technology stocks anyway. Toss in Microsoft's woes (which really may favor Internet stocks depending on how intense the trial of the century gets), and a weak broad market and the drop has some dirge to dance to.
In five months that song may sound different with all of the virtual "Santas" and the hundreds of millions of dollars we think could flow through the Web.
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